Talent can be notoriously hard to judge, particularly in short-term interactions with others such as job interviews: according to research there is only a 4% overlap between interview ratings and subsequent job performance ratings.
One reason for this elusive nature of talent isthat it is quite easy to fake. People evaluating talent tend to over-rely on their intuition and misinterpret key signals e.g. extraversion for social skills, confidence for competence, and charisma for leadership potential.
It’s been very frequently demonstrated that unstructured interviews (by far the most common selection method) is not particularly valid: on the other hand, psychometric tests of general mental ability are highly valid, even higher-level executive jobs.
Psychometrics have come into use mostly because companies believe it enables them to assess a person’s cultural fit with the company’s values and helps them measure certain competencies which the organization feels its employees need to have.
Research shows that cognitive aptitude is one of the most accurate predictors of job success: twice as predictive as experience, and four times as predictive as education level.